Days before the election, the race for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District appears more competitive than in past years. On Oct. 30, the Cook Political Report said the race has tightened and reclassified the district away from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” but still in incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz’s favor by 8 percentage points.
Spartz is seeking a fourth term. Democratic State Sen. J.D. Ford, who represents District 29, is challenging Spartz in what would be his first step onto the national political scene.
WFYI interviewed both candidates for our 2026 Voter Guide. They discussed their positions on affordability, elections, immigration and data centers.
The road leading to the increasingly competitive match-up began in the crowded May primary with seven Democratic hopefuls to attack ads and an infusion of cash in the general election.
The district northeast of Indianapolis includes Hamilton County and reaches to Anderson, Kokomo, Marion and Muncie.
Here’s what to know.
The polling
A nonpartisan poll released Oct. 28 places Ford within the margin of error to win. Spartz came ahead at 45% and Ford is at 41.8%.
Quantus Insights polled 601 likely voters from Oct. 21-22. They were contacted by text message. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points at 95% confidence.
Another 9.8% of respondents said they are undecided. When pressed, nearly half said they were still undecided, and the remaining lean slightly in Ford’s favor by four percentage points, narrowing Spartz’s lead to 2.8 percentage points.
Spartz first ran in 2020, winning by a margin of 4.1 percentage points, less than her predecessor. After the state redistricted in 2022, the 5th District lost portions of Marion County and gained portions of rural counties to the north, adding to Spartz’s margins of 22.1 points that year and 18.6 points in 2024.
READ MORE: 2026 Voter Guide: Indiana's 5th Congressional District
Two partisan polls found a close race. On Oct. 21, the House Majority PAC — a super PAC focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives — released a poll that was 48% for a Republican candidate and 47% for a Democrat. In August, Ford’s campaign released a poll, finding 48% for Spartz and 46% for Ford.
The Cook Political Report reclassification of the race to “Leans Republican” is part of its shift in 12 seats around the country toward Democrats. In early October, it changed from “Solid Republican” in a similar shift.
Candidates volley
Ford criticized Spartz’s record in August and September, making comments in press releases about Spartz benefiting financially from her position and her policy history on data centers.
On Sept. 18, Spartz sent a letter and financial disclosures to Ford’s campaign calling his statements false, requesting corrections and challenging him to a public debate.
Ford responded days later, calling Spartz’s letter about her financial transactions misleading, noting it indicated she traded stocks. Ford’s letter included hundreds of pages of her financial records.
Campaign finance
Spartz has totaled $2.2 million in contributions and spent $1.9 million between January 2025 and Oct. 15, 2026, according to the Federal Election Commission. Ford raised about $1.4 million and spent about $1.1 million between January 2026 and Oct. 15.
Both Republican and Democratic parties are contributing significant cash for political advertising in 70 House races around the country, including in Indiana’s 5th District, according to reporting from NPR. The national analysis of data from AdImpact shows Republican groups are spending $711,788 and Democratic groups adding $469,710 in the district for a total of over $1.5 million.
The Cook Political Report assessment noted the super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC, funded by Chris Larsen, is spending money against Spartz in the race.
President Donald Trump is losing support among some groups and Republicans nationwide face challenges over voter concern on issues like cost of living. But Cook’s assessment remains in Spartz’s favor, saying that it’s still “a tough race for any Democrat” and Ford would need to win the Hamilton County suburbs to prevail.
Advertising
In October, the candidates released ads swiping at each other’s records.
A first jab came from Ford on Oct. 1. An ad called “The Heist” took aim at Spartz’s finances, claiming that large corporations paid her property taxes, traded around $5.9 million in stocks, and voted in favor of cutting health care and protecting corporate profits.
Spartz’s campaign said it sent cease-and-desist letters to Ford’s campaign about the ad and mailers, claiming Ford used “fabricated AI images” and showed her committing crimes she didn’t do. The next day, Ford’s campaign rejected the claim about the video, calling her claims “baseless” and false.
Spartz, rankled, released an ad attacking Ford’s record in the statehouse. An image of Ford wearing a shirt saying “Protect Trans Kids” highlighted his record on legislation on LGBTQ+ issues, police funding, taxes and other issues.
Shortly after that, Ford’s campaign said although Spartz had proposed a debate and he was willing, Spartz wouldn’t in front of an audience with constituents. Spartz fired back the next day proposing a debate at one of two local television stations focused on policy, “not a staged rally with his activists.”
Then, Spartz’s campaign claimed her campaign signs were stolen and replaced with Ford’s, calling his supporters “obnoxious and disrespectful.”
In Spartz’s most recent ad, on Oct. 18, her two daughters discuss Ford’s claims about her stock trades. They said they hadn’t seen that money. Spartz called Ford a “radical puppet” and claimed he was spreading lies about her.
The election is Nov. 3. Early voting is underway.
Contact WFYI data journalist Zak Cassel at zcassel@wfyi.org.
