A former top diplomat says she doesn’t believe the war in Iran will end soon, despite President Trump’s statements that a deal could be close.
Pakistan said Tuesday that it is open to holding talks between the United States and Iran. And NPR has confirmed that some back-channel talks are underway, as leaders in the Middle East handle messages from the U.S. and Iran. Iran has publicly said that no talks are underway.
“I think that we all have to be quite unfortunately pessimistic about where this is going,” Wendy Sherman, former deputy secretary of state, said.
5 questions with Wendy Sherman
President Trump says a possible deal is near. What do you make of that?
“I think we all wish that a deal was imminent and going to happen.
“I appreciate the president’s wish, but I don’t think it’s going to be fulfilled. And we see ongoing fighting now. Yes, the president has pulled back from attacking power plants, which would have gotten a return from Tehran by attacking probably desalination plants in the Gulf, which would have been devastating. So, I think, unfortunately, we are in for war for some time to come.”
Can a meeting in Pakistan lead to a deal given the divisions between the two sides?
“Well, I would be generous to say there is a wide, wide gulf, no pun intended, between what President Trump wants and what Iran wants, let alone what Israel wants. We are aligned with Israel, but we are not identical in our objectives, though it is not entirely clear what the objectives are of President Trump to come to closure.
“He says there’s a 15-point plan that’s been agreed to. My understanding is it’s a 15-point proposal that was presented to Iran some time ago.
“And you know, what’s important here for everybody to understand is that Iran has become more hardline, not less so, because of this war. So, Iran is in for the long haul. After all, during the Iran-Iraq war, when Iran was not doing well, it hung on for eight years.”
Have you seen what is in the 15-point plan or proposal that Trump has made? Do you know what’s in there?
“I don’t know all the details. I know what’s been reported. President Trump has also said publicly he wants to get hold of the enriched uranium, which is now underneath some rubble, probably at Isfahan in Iran. He wants there never to be further enrichment.
“He wants their missile program to end. He wants funding of proxies such as Hezbollah to end. And he wants a regime that he can deal with. And I suspect, as he has wanted in Venezuela and elsewhere, he wants some part of the oil proceeds that Iran sells around the world, particularly to China.”
You outlined what Trump’s main demands for Iran are. Iran has resisted all of those, and now it’s upped the ante by saying it wants reparations for war damages. So, is there any compromise the U.S. could possibly offer to Iran, or are the two sides just too far apart for a negotiated settlement?
“Right now, I think they’re extremely far apart. There’s always a possibility to negotiate.
“But two things have happened that make this more difficult. Twice before, Iran has been negotiating with the United States, in June and in October, and both times we have then engaged in an assault on Iran. And so, they’re very wary of negotiating with United States.
“The other thing I would say is that the United States, so far under President Trump, has done what I call drive-by negotiations, a couple of hours, largely indirect negotiations, meeting a mediator, carrying messages back and forth. That makes it very difficult to get anything done.”
So, the key question is, how does this war end? And what happens to Iran’s existing highly enriched uranium?
“Well, I think that it can only ultimately end through some kind of negotiation, whether we are at that moment or not, I doubt. I wish that we were, but we all have to understand that the president has ordered thousands of Marines, thousands of sailors and expeditionary force further ships to the Middle East.
“And so that may signal leverage, but it also signals that the president, in fact, may see having particular kinds of boots on the ground, on the ground to try to achieve some of the objectives in advance of a negotiation.
“I wish I were more optimistic that this was the moment to end this by negotiation, to declare victory, because indeed our superb military has degraded Iran’s missile program, its nuclear program, but it has not achieved what I think President Trump hopes for. And it certainly hasn’t opened the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical to the world’s economy.”
This interview was edited for clarity.
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Samantha Raphelson produced and edited this interview for broadcast with Michael Scotto. Scotto also produced it for the web.
This article was originally published on WBUR.org.
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